[LeArc] [Fwd: AstroAlert: AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH]

[Jay Hainline]

                             A s t r o  A l e r t
                               Sun-Earth Alert

                          Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                            http://www.spacew.com

                                17 March 2002

                      AURORA WATCH FOR MIDDLE LATITUDES


AURORA WATCH FOR MIDDLE LATITUDES

     A moderately energetic long-duration solar flare was observed at 23:10
UTC on 15 March (7:10 pm EST) that was associated with a full halo (Earthward
directed) coronal mass ejection. This coronal mass ejection is expected to
impact the Earth on 18 March and enhance auroral activity to levels that may
provide middle latitude observers around the world with a chance to spot
periods of auroral activity. This is not predicted to be a particularly
strong disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential exists for periods of auroral
activity to form with sufficient intensity to become visible at times over
fairly wide-spread middle latitude regions. Observers should be alert for
possible activity during the UTC days of 18 and 19 March.

     The official watch statement is included below.


                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                     ISSUED: 06:20 UTC, 17 MARCH 2002

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


VALID BEGINNING AT: 19:00 UTC 17 MARCH
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (2 pm EDT) ON 20 MARCH

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 18 - 19 MAR (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 17 - 20 MAR

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 5, 25, 20, 12 (17 MAR - 20 MAR)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO MONTANA TO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL
   MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK SKY SITES OF NEW YORK
   STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO EXTREME
   NORTHERN GERMANY TO EXTREME NORTHERN POLAND TO NORTHERN LITHUANIA TO
   LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT
   PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     A moderately energetic long-duration solar flare was observed at 23:10
UTC on 15 March (7:10 pm EST) that was associated with a full halo (Earthward
directed) coronal mass ejection. This coronal mass ejection is expected to
impact the Earth on 18 March and enhance auroral activity to levels that may
provide middle latitude observers around the world with a chance to spot
periods of auroral activity. This is not predicted to be a particularly
strong disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential exists for periods of auroral
activity to form with sufficient intensity to become visible at times over
fairly wide-spread middle latitude regions. Observers should be alert for
possible activity during the UTC days of 18 and 19 March.

     This watch will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC (2 pm EST) on 20
March. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                  http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html

                                    * OR *

              Use the popular STD AURORA MONITOR Software or our
       BRAND NEW STD SWIM (Space Weather Information Monitor) software
      to monitor conditions, report sightings, etc. It is available at:
                         http://www.spacew.com/aurora
                                    or at
                          http://www.spacew.com/swim

  For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts:
                          http://www.spacew.com/irc
              and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora)


**  End of the AstroAlert Bulletin  **