[LeArc] DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK - VALID 081200Z - 091200Z (Slight Chance of Svr Storms)

[Duane Whittingham]

   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   45 NNW POE 20 WNW TPL 25 ESE BWD 35 ENE SPS END 25 ESE P28
   25 ENE HUT 15 SSW STJ 25 WSW OTM 25 W MLI 30 SW MMO DNV 35 NE OWB
   30 W BNA 20 NE TUP 50 WNW JAN 45 NNW POE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ROC
   30 WSW DUJ 30 NE CRW 25 N TYS 10 NNE GAD 10 W BTR 20 WNW BPT
   45 N VCT 45 S SAT 30 WNW HDO 25 W JCT 35 WNW SPS 25 SE DDC
   20 S RSL 20 W FNB 30 NE DSM 20 SW LSE 25 WSW ESC 30 N ANJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CAG 15 NNW EGE
   50 SE GUC 35 E DRO 45 W FMN 25 SE U17 35 W U28 30 W VEL 35 W CAG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S FMY 15 N VRB.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
   PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES / MS VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD...WHILE
   SURFACE LOW INITIALLY IN ERN CO DEEPENS AND MOVES NEWD ALONG
   BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS LOW MOVES
   NEWD...TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE
   PLAINS...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM LK MI SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH /
   MID MS VALLEY INTO SERN TX BY 09/12Z.  ADDITIONALLY...A TROUGH /
   DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS OK / CENTRAL TX.
   
   ...CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...  
   POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD AS KINEMATIC
   / THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
   FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS OVER THIS REGION.  RETURN OF GULF
   MOISTURE /60S DEWPOINTS/ NOW UNDERWAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
   TWO PERIOD AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH / DEVELOPING SURFACE
   LOW.  THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ADVECTING ENEWD INTO THE REGION ON WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
   IN SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE 1500 TO
   2500 J/KG SURFACE CAPE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF COLD FRONT /
   EAST OF TROUGH / DRY LINE. 
   
   ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED INTO
   EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
   IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN IA
   / NWRN MO SWWD INTO THE ERN HALF KS.  MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE
   POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL OK SWD INTO N TX IN REGION OF WEAKER LOW-
   LEVEL FORCING ALONG TROUGH / DRY LINE. 
   
   SLY WARM-SECTOR SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS INCREASING / VEERING
   TO WSWLY AT MID-LEVELS INTO THE 50 TO 70 KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON WILL
   RESULT IN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS.  STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG
   COLD FRONT SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BECOME LINEARLY-ORGANIZED AND MOVE
   SEWD...BUT A MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL --
   PARTICULARLY INVOF TROUGH / DRY LINE IN OK / N TX.  LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.  IN ADDITION...A FEW
   SUPERCELL TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF DRY LINE...
   PARTICULARLY INVOF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR AND GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / LOWER LCL HEIGHTS ARE
   ANTICIPATED.  OVERNIGHT...MORE LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
   SHIFT SEWD ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN MO / THE ERN HALF OF OK / AR
   / NERN TX...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / LARGE HAIL
   ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
    
   ..GOSS.. 03/07/02
 
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Duane Whittingham (N9SSN) - Producer
Tom and Darryl Radio Shows
Heard on C-Band Analog Satellite (W0KIE) - GE7-CH5-7.5 mHz
Also on WQNA 88.3 FM, WBCQ 7415 kHz and the Internet.
An Independent Freeform Eclectic Radio Show.
http://www.tomanddarryl.org