[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/27/02 2:43:21 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 270743
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
243 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2002

LAST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE JUST MOVED OUT OF FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  IR IMAGE SHOWING BACK EDGE OF AS/CS ALONG THE MS RIVER
WITH CLEAR SKIES UP STREAM.  NWLY FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF CWA WITH
SURFACE FRONT FROM NE IL THROUGH EXTREME SE IA AND ACROSS NRN MO.  MID
50 DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NW FLOW OVER AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY THEN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS INTO MS VALLEY FOR THE
WEEKEND.  SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER IA BY TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP BY EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST.  DRY NW FLOW
AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN WILL GIVE REGION A BREAK FROM THE RECENT
HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  850 TEMPS COOL TO AROUND 16C THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS SLIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.  BASED ON SURFACE
TRAJECTORIES AND 850 TEMPS...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S LOOK
REASONABLE.  ALL MOS NUMBERS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MINS TONIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S.  WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WARM AIR RETURNS TO REGION.  H7 TEMPS WARM TO +10 TO +12 C
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INDICATING A MID LEVEL CAP.  AVN PLACES A WEAK
S/W TO OUR SOUTH AND BLOWS UP A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT QPF OVER CWA LATE
MONDAY.  HARD TO BELIEVE THIS WILL OCCUR BASED ON WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS.  WILL NOT CHANGE FORECAST NOW...BUT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
RE-EVALUATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY.

IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLF