[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/26/02 3:27:02 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 260828
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2002

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM WRN MN INTO NRN
NE.  LINE OF STRONG TSRA WAS OCCURRING ON OUTFLOW FROM CENTRAL WI
INTO NCNTRL IA AND AHEAD OF S/W ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TSRA TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AS
FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH CWA IN CONJUNCTION WITH H5 S/W MOVING
ACROSS WI. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...
BUT ETA SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THERMAL PARAMETERS IN THE NEAR
TERM. 00Z RUN HAS FRONT INTO NORTHERN CWA BY MID DAY AND EXITING SOUTH
LATE THIS EVENING....A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. EXPECT ONGOING
NERN IA/WI TSRA TO CONTINUE SSE AND MOVE ACROSS NRN HALF CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO
RECOVER BY MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH CAPES AROUND 3000J/KG
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH PER ETA FCST.  THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO FIRE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
HIGH WBZ TEMPS SHOULD KEEP HAIL SIZE CLOSE TO 3/4 INCH.  ALSO WITH PWS
AROUND 1.5 HEAVY RAIN WILL  BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA ...BUT PCPN SHOULD
BE OUT OF CWA BY MIDNIGHT.  AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN ON NW FLOW FOR REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

WILL GO WITH ETA 2M TEMPS TODAY...SINCE ETA IS TAPPING +20C 850 AIR
OVER PLAINS AND BRINGS IT INTO SOUTHERN IA/NRN MO AHEAD OF FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.  FOR THE THE REST OF THE WEEK MOS TEMPS VARY LITTLE AND SEE
NO REASON TO DIFFER.


IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLF