[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/24/02 2:32:14 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 240734
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
234 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2002

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM WITH AREA REMAINING UNDER
INFLUENCE OF H5 RIDGE STRETCHING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE PLAINS.
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED WELL NORTH OF REGION FROM SD E THROUGH
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI.

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  REGION TRANSITIONS TO NW FLOW BY LATE TUESDAY AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS OVER ROCKIES AND TROUGH IS CARVED TO THE EAST AS CANADA
S/W PHASES WITH H5 LOW DRIFTING W ACROSS GULF COAST.  AS NW FLOW
DEVELOPS...STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR N WILL DROP SOUTH.  MODELS CONTINUE
TO SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY.  LOOKS LIKE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
MORNING.  AVN APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE DETAILS BETTER WITH RESPECT
TO MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL RELY ON AVN FOR MUCH
OF FCST.

WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE TODAY WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING
WEAK AND 850 TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME AS YDA.  SHOULD ONLY MIX OUT TO
850MB AGAIN TODAY WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS NR 90 AGAIN.  MAV/MET/FWC
NUMBERS ALL ABOUT THE SAME FOR MINS TONIGHT AND SEE NO REASON TO
CHANGE. SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO NW IA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...STILL
WELL NW OF CWA. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...WILL REMOVE POPS IN
THE NORTH TUESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPPER LOW TO OUR S THOUGH.  AVN
SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR SRN COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AVN WAS OVERDOING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
THIS EVENING...SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS SOUTH...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR.  COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED S/W NEARS CWA BY TUESDAY
EVENING...AND MOVES OUT OF SRN CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  WILL
INTRODUCE HUMID WORDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD
OF APROACHING FRONT. SHOULD SEE TEMPS BACK OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION.
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD.

IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLF