[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/23/02 1:16:13 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 230618 AAA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
115 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2002

LTL CHG THROUGH MON...THEN CHALLENGE BECOMES PCPN CHCS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENING SLOWLY BUT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE
NEXT 36 HRS. NOT ALL THAT HUMID YESTERDAY ALONG AND EAST OF MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM IN THROUGH CENTRAL IL 
INTO EASTERN MO DEFLECTING GULF MOISTURE. BACKING LLVL WINDS SAT MORNING
BROUGHT SLIGHT DRYING WESTWARD INTO REGION...AND CONTINUES 
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RUNNING FEW DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HRS AGO. THIS WILL
CHANGE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING DEWPTS IN EASTERN ZONES
TO EDGE BACK UP TO NEAR 70 DEGS BY MON. OTHERWISE...IN THIS PATTERN PERSISTENCE
RULES TEMP FORECAST...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH MET AND AVN MOS.  
DISCARDED FWC TEMPS FOR MAXES TODAY AS THEY AGAIN ARE WAY TOO WARM PERHAPS
ATTRIBUTED TO UNDERDOING BL MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE MON AS SHORTWAVE MOVES E/NE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH
PLACEMENT OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE...WITH AVN BEING FURTHEST SOUTH BY 12Z
TUE (SCNTRL MN INTO SCNTRL WI). ETA/UKMET MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH
AND THIS APPEARS MORE REASONABLE WITH SHORTWAVE INDUCING W/SW FLOW ALOFT.
THEREFORE...WITH THIS IN MIND CAP SHOULD HOLD INTO TUE WITH 
PATTERN AND FORCING SUGGESTIVE OF CONVECTION STAYING FAIRLY CLOSE TO FRONTAL
ZONE FROM MN THROUGH NORTHWEST IA INTO NE. FRONT MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY
THROUGH REGION LATE TUE AND WED WITH CHC POPS FOLLOWED BY BRIEF COOLING...
AS INDICATIONS ARE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BUILD 
INTO THE NATIONS MIDSECTION NEXT WEEKEND WITH RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

M^2