[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/22/02 1:12:42 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 220611 AAA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
110 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2002

RING OF FIRE EVIDENT WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO MID-ATLANTIC. RIDGING SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN 
CWA THROUGH WEEKEND...WITH CONVECTION FOCUSING ALONG PERIPHERY OF HEAT DOME.
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS SO TEMP FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON PERSISTENCE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW LLVL FLOW BACKING SOME AGAIN TONIGHT...SO BELIEVE
SOME DRYING (ALBEIT SLIGHT) WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE EAST. 
THIS WILL FACTOR SOME INTO MINS AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL...PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODELS DEPICTING CLOSED LOW STAYING WELL SOUTH OF REGION 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFT ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST. LOOKS LIKE PCPN MON WILL BE CONFINED
NORTH AND SOUTH OF REGION WITH UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING. 
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLD CONVECTION AS RIDGING NOT AS STRONG...BUT NOT WORTH 
MENTION. PCPN CHCS DON/T APPEAR THAT GREAT FOR MON NIGHT WITH CHC
CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHERN CUTS AHEAD OF FRONTAL ZONE AS IT SAGS SOUTH TOWARD
REGION. ANY CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD 
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL LEAVE IN CHCS AND LET DAY CREW RE-EVALUATE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

M^2