[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/21/02 4:18:25 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 210919 AAA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
110 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2002

MAIN CHALLENGE TSTM CHCS. SHOULD/VE WENT WITH INSTINCTS YESTERDAY MORNING
TO OMIT POPS IN SOUTHERN 2/3RDS. IT/S LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE
FOR PCPN IN MUCH OF CWA EXCEPT NORTHERN CUTS TODAY INTO EARLY EVE. HOT DOME 
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
NORTHEASTERN STATES. WATER VAPOR PICS AND KDMX RADAR SHOW DECENT SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IA. SHORTWAVE RIDING
ALONG H85 FRONTAL ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST WI THROUGH NORTHERN IA
INTO CENTRAL NE. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF H85 MOISTURE SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE 
WITH BROAD SWATH OF 14-16C DEWPTS FEEDING CONVECTION. SFC EQUIV POT TEMP DEPICTS
SFC FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR MADISON WI...TO MARSHALLTOWN IA AND NORFOLK NE.
AVN AND ETA/META DIFFER ON HANDLING OF FRONT WITH AVN TAKING FRONT WELL NORTH 
OF REGION BY 00Z...WHILE ETA HANGS FRONTAL ZONE UP ACROSS CENTRAL CUTS THIS EVE
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH. OVERALL...LEANING TOWARD ETA/META SOLUTION 
AS FURTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION TRENDS
NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE AND POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW SUPPRESSING IT SOUTH. WILL 
MONITOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES WILL GO DRY SOUTH 
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF HEAT DOME AND KEEP PCPN CHCS NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND NORTH
FOR TODAY. POPS (CHC) TONIGHT WILL BE STRICTLY IN THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...LOOKS 
CONTINUED VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID/MUGGY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
IN EXTENDED...UPPER LOW IN LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOOKS TO STAY WELL SOUTH 
PER LATEST AVN. NEXT PCPN CHC APPEARS TO BE TUE WITH FRONTAL ZONE. 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

FIVE