[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/16/02 2:40:47 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 160741
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
240 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2002

.OVERVIEW...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
PASSING EVERY 24 HOURS OR SO SPAWNING WEAK TO MODERATE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS
PATTERN NEXT 24-36 HOURS.   OVERALL...QUIET AND PLEASANT LATE SPRING
WEATHER.

...ASSESSING TEMP TRENDS AND POPS IN NW FLOW STILL MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...MODELS CONTINUE MARGINAL PERFORMANCE ON
IDENTIFYING PASSING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION BUT DO CAPTURE MOST OF
FORCING CREATING THE SHOWERS/STORMS SO WILL USE AS PRIMARY POP TOOL.
USING AVN/ETA BLEND...SUGGEST NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
TONIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE LASTING INTO MONDAY.  TEMPS...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE CONTINUE MIX OF MAV/FWC BLEND WITH SOME INPUTS OF PERSISTENCE...
OR LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND HIGHS CLOSE TO MODEL BLEND.
TUESDAY...UPPER AIR DIFFLUENCE AND APPROACHING LEE SIDE TROUGH WITH MORE
MOISTURE SUPPORTS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
POPS BY LATE DAY AND EVENING.  STORMS MAY BE INTENSE WITH OUR NORMAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH GREATER INSTABILITY.

.EXTENDED (WED-SAT)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST NEXT SYSTEM TO SAG
AND STALL E-W ACROSS FORECAST AREA FOR AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REQUIRING
KEEPING POPS INTO SATURDAY WHICH ARE ALREADY IN EXTENDED. WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR TWO WITH WIDESPREAD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER PORTENDING END TO
SEASONABLY COOL AND RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN NOW IN PLACE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS