[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/15/02 2:16:55 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 150712
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
210 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

.OVERVIEW...UPPER LOW NOW INTO GREAT LAKES PUTTING REGION UNDER
SEASONABLE NORTHWEST FLOW.   WEAK SHORT WAVE IN DAKOTAS IDENTIFIED WITH
SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION.  ANALYSIS SUPPORTS THIS ENERGY TO MOVE SE
INTO OUR AREA THIS PM AND EVENING.  UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES ALSO NOTED ON
WV FURTHER UPSTREAM TO SUPPORT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ASSESSING TEMP TRENDS AND POPS IN NW FLOW MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...MODELS MARGINAL ON CURRENT PRECIPITATION IN
DAKOTAS BUT OK WITH OVERALL FORCING.  USING NOWCAST TOOLS AND MODEL
FORCING SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS TODAY AND GOOD WARMUP AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT
WEAK FRONT FOR HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.  LIMITED MOISTURE
SUGGEST LITTLE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT HEAVY PRECIPITATION OR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR A GENERALLY QUIET PERIOD THAT CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  NEARER TERM...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF EVENING POPS TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH SECTIONS WITH PASSING BOUNDARY AND UPPER DISTURBANCE.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WILL GO ON COOL SIDE WITH REINFORCING NW WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  SUNDAY AND LONGER TERM TIME PERIOD WILL TREND
TOWARD AVN/UKMET AS ETA BY 60 HOURS SHOWS SOME APPARENT INSTABILITY
PROBLEMS WITH UVV OF AN INCREDIBLE ~44 MICROBARS/SEC WITH LIMITED
DEWPOINTS OF ~50F AND NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE OF VORT MAX...JUST DOESN/T ADD
UP.   ALL MODELS DO KEEP NW FLOW ON MONDAY...OVERALL...NO MAJOR
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM GUIDANCE THEREAFTER BEYOND 1 CATEGORY INTO
TUESDAY BASED ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENCE.

.EXTENDED (TUE-FRI)...DESPITE MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT LATEST UKMET/ECMWF
AND AVNEXT VARIANCE ON NEXT FRONT AND UPPER AIR TROUGH BY MIDWEEK...
APPEARS OVERALL GENERAL PATTERN IN EXTENDED HANDLED AND PLAN NO MAJOR
CHANGES ATTM.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS