[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/11/02 3:29:03 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 112029
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

COLD FRONT AT 18Z DRAPPED NE FROM CENTRAL KS LOW THROUGH NW IA TO 
EASTERN UPPER MI. COUPLE OF TSRA COMPLEXES HAVE KEPT SKIES CLOUDY 
AND TEMPS DOWN ACROSS CWFA TODAY. FIRST HAS EXITED INTO OHIO VALLEY 
WHILE SECOND...WHICH HAS PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN FAR 
SOUTHERN ZONES...JUST NOW EXITING SE INTO CENTRAL IL. LINGERING MID 
LEVEL VORT CENTER SEEN ON BOTH 88D AND VISBIBLE SATELLITE OVER N 
CENTRAL IA. FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS RAIN AND TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT 
AS FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH AREA...THEN AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK AS SLOW 
MOVING VIRGOURUS UPPER LOW OVER SE SASK PASSES NORTH ON FRIDAY.

IN SHORT TERM...MESO-ETA WAS CLOSEST WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND 
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH ITS PUSHING FRONT SE THROUGH AREA.. 
BEYOND...MODEL TREND OF AVN TAKING FRONT TOO FAR SOUTH 
CONTINUED...WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT ON QPF PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY 
EARLY THURSDAY AS NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE CLOSER TO MAIN H5 LOW MOVES 
THROUGH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE...LEANING MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE 
ETA.

INITIAL QUESTION WILL BE WHERE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION KICKS OFF 
UPSTREAM TO IMPACT AREA LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS NEXT UPSTREAM 
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SW KS THAT LIKE LAST NIGHT WILL NOT AFFECT 
AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST ZONES WILL HAVE 
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF ON-GOING STORMS AND 
NOCTURNAL JET AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE. WILL HAVE CONTINUED 
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES 
UNTIL BETTER HANDLE GAINED WITH NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION. SEVERE 
RISK ALSO IN SOUTH WITH HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT HIGH ENOUGH 
TO PLACE IN ZONES AT THIS TIME.

POPS NECESSARY ONLY IN FAR SOUTH CLOSEST TO FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WITH 
ALL MODELS POINTING AT BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING H5 LOW 
THURSDAY...RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT. ON FRIDAY...COLD POOL AND VORT 
MAX ROTATES THROUGH WITH UPPER LOW AND HAVE ADDED LOW POPS FOR 
MAINLY INSTABILITY SHOWERS...OTHERWISE WENT ON LOW END OF GUIDANCE 
WITH NW FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. FOR WEEKEND AND BEYOND...LATEST 
AVN INDICATED WEAK E-W TROF DROPPING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND MAY 
PRODUCE FEW SHOWERS...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. NEXT RAIN CHANCES 
PUT IN FOR MONDAY WITH STRONGER FROPA INDICATED BY MRF WITH UPPER 
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES. FRONT INDICATED TO STALL OUT JUST TO SOUTH 
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTH TUESDAY. 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

11