[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/9/02 2:09:08 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 090708
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
208 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2002

LATEST SURFACE AND 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS FOR A THIRD DAY IN A
ROW...PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW PROVIDING PUSH OF WARM AIR INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S.  THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT WARM.  ONCE AGAIN ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.  CLOSED
LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOW MOVEMENT.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION WITH NEXT FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ETA AND AVN CONTINUE TO RUN PRETTY CLOSE ESPECIALLY ON THE UPPER LOW
OUT WEST AND THE WAVE OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE.  AT 00Z ETA HAD EVEN
PLACED THE NORTH AND SOUTH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION FAIRLY CLOSE.

FINALLY NO CONVECTION OUT WEST TO PRODUCE CLOUD DEBRIS AS IN
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A
LITTLE CLEANER SUNSHINE...UPPER 80S MAYBE A LOW 90 NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION TODAY.  AFTER COORDINATION WITH DES MOINES...WILL
LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN OUR FAR
SOUTH COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.  CHANCE WORDING OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY IS JUSTIFIED WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVE AND CONTINUED PRE
FRONTAL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. TUESDAY STILL WILL BE THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN EVENT WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  AS ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WILL WANT TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN LIGHT OF RECENT HEAVY RAIN
EVENT IN FORECAST AREA AND ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. THE DAY CREW MAY
WANT TO THINK ABOUT ESF. NEXT MODEL RUN SHOULD ADD SOME CLARIFICATION
TO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.  FRONT WILL LIKELY
STILL BE EXITING THE ILLINOIS PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...HERE WE GO INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW.  PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AND FORECAST COVERED THIS VERY WELL AND
THE ASSOCIATED COOL DOWN IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.  NOTHING FOR THIS
FORECASTER TO ADD OR CHANGE AT THIS TIME.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

MEYER