[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/7/02 2:48:24 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 071947
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2002

DIGGING SYSTEM OVER WESTERN U.S....PUMPS UP RIDGE OVER NATIONS MID
SECTION.  BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE
WEATHER TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN
MN SW THROUGH NE.  SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY.  WITH RIDGE IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS NUMBERS TONIGHT.  SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING FROM NW IA/SW MN  INTO NE/SD COULD BRUSH FAR NW COUNTIES
THIS EVENING...PER DAY 1 AND RECENT SWOMCD.  MODELS LEND SOME SUPPORT
TO THIS PER 700 OMEGA FIELDS.  SO WILL CONITINUE A LOW POP THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. TEMPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR SATURDAY. WILL BACK OFF
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER THINS TO THE SOUTH...BUT SFC TO 850 WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM MOS NUMBERS. INCREASING WIND AND DEWPOINTS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP MINS IN THE 60S.  UPPER RIDGE PARKS OVER REGION
SUNDAY.  WILL GO A LITTLE OVER GUIDANCE WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +18 AND
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO PROVIDE FOR SOME MIXING.  SHOULD ALSO BE
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. SHRA/TSRA THREAT RETURNS TO REGION MONDAY
AS SW SW SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT OUT...PUSHING RIDGE TO THE EAST.

.EXTENDED...
LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT NORTH CENTRAL U.S THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS IOWA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GOING FORECAST ALREADY REFLECTS THIS TREND SO LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED.
BASED ON SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...
LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD BE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACTIVE WEATHER.  SOME DISCREPENCIES SHOW UP BY THURSDAY WITH DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.  THE MRF IS
DEEPER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE UKMET/ECMWF.  MRF DROPS H850 TEMPS
TO +2C OVER NORHTERN CWA WITH SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR.  UKMET/ECMWF
ALSO HINTING AT THIS SECOND SURGE...SO WILL INCLUDE SHRA CHANCE FOR
THRUSDAY/FRIDAY AND GO LITTLE COOLER THAN MEX NUMBERS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.