[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/6/02 2:43:17 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 060742
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
242 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2002

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM THE MODELS ACTUALLY HAVE A REASONABLE SCENARIO OF
WHAT WILL HAPPEN. CLOUDS SLOW TO EXIT CWFA AND FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE
BEGINNINGS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CWFA. IT IS NOW A RACE AGAINST
SUNRISE ON HOW MUCH AND HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET. OBVIOUS THAT IT
WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY OR GO TO AREAS. KFEP/KAWG/KMUT OBS SHOW
QUARTER MILE OR LESS ON VISIBILITY WHICH MAY BE ONLY GROUND FOG. WILL
MAKE CALLS AROUND AND MONITOR SITUATION NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF HEADLINES
ARE NEEDED FOR FOG...LIKELY AREA TO BE FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WHERE
DENSE FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

BEYOND THAT DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY/TONIGHT/FRIDAY WITH RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. RETURN FLOW BEGINS TONIGHT WITH
WARMING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS
BEGIN TO DISAGREE. THETA E RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN NORTH OF CWFA ALONG
WITH FRONT. BEST FORCING IS LOCATED AROUND FRONT (AS ONE WOULD EXPECT)
BUT META DOES BRING SOME FORCING INTO THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF CWFA.
PRECIP SHOULD NOT MOVE FAR FROM THE THETA E RIDGE BUT POTENTIAL THERE
FOR PRECIP TO REACH BUCHANAN/DELAWARE COUNTIES IF ANY OUTFLOWS PROPAGATE
FAR ENOUGH. COVERAGE IF THIS WOULD HAPPEN WOULD LIKELY BE 10 PERCENT
AT BEST. THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION IN ZONES.

FWC/MAV ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TOGETHER BUT WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE PAST 2 DAYS.
THIS WAS DUE TO PRECIP ON TUESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY CLOUDS. HOWEVER ONCE
CLOUDS CLEARED YESTERDAY MOST INSOLATION ENERGY WENT INTO EVAPORATION OF
THE WET GROUND INSTEAD OF AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. THIS COULD BE THE CASE
AGAIN TODAY. NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED.

COORDINATED WITH DSM AND LSE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86