[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/5/02 4:15:11 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 050912 AAA
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
412 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2002

JUST HAD A BIG IFPS CRASH...SO NOW WILL HAVE TO DO ZONES BY HAND.  WILL
HOPE TO HAVE THEM OUT BY 5 AM BUT IT MAY BE LATER. BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...WILL ALSO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO EARLIER THINKING AS WELL. RUC
SHOWS NICE FORCING TO CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE SHRA. THIS FORCING TO FALL APART BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS BETTER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT MODELS STILL HAVING PROBLEMS IN
DESCRIBING AND DEPICTING WHAT WILL HAPPEN. MODELS AGREE IN BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE CWFA THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACTUALLY DRY THINGS OUT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE
GROUND IS SATURATED AND ANY SUNSHINE TODAY WILL GO TO EVAPORATE MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GROUND...AND ADD MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DOWNWARD
MOTION FROM RIDGE AND NIL WINDS TO ALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HEADLINES FOR FOG
WOULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...BUT DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXTENT OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL PASS THIS CONCERN TO DAY SHIFT.

NICE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS SHOW ANY GOOD
FORCING TO BE WEST OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE.

GUIDANCE WISE...FWC/MAV ARE AGAIN FAIRLY CLOSE. TRICK WILL BE WHEN
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT ON WHAT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE. WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS WARRANTED.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...AND CHI.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86