[LeArc] DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

[Duane Whittingham]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW JHW 40 SW ELM 30 NNE BWI RIC 40 SE LYH 20 ESE BKW 20 WNW HTS
15 NE SDF 30 S BLV 20 WSW FYV 15 SW DUA SJT 50 NNE DRT 10 NW DRT
40 NW DRT 15 SSE P07 30 SW P07 30 ENE MRF 45 W ROW 20 NW 4CR
35 NNE LVS 30 SE TAD 40 SE EHA 45 NNW CDS 20 NW LTS 10 SE OKC
30 WSW BVO 50 SSE OJC 15 N UIN 35 E RFD 10 W LAN 25 NE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N ART 30 NW RUT
20 SE LEB 10 S PSM ...CONT... 20 NE ORF 40 NNW RWI 20 NE SPA
20 SSE AHN 30 SE MCN 30 WSW AYS 20 SW AGR MIA ...CONT...
30 WSW PNS 25 E MEI CBM 45 NNW TUP 60 SW MEM 35 N ELD 25 N MLU
40 SW JAN 30 SSW MCB 15 SE POE LFK 65 E ACT 25 SSE DAL 40 S SEP
30 SE JCT 60 W COT ...CONT... 50 SSW MRF 35 S ALM 20 NE SVC
45 NNW SAD 55 NNE PHX FLG 40 N GUP 30 NNE DRO 10 S CAG 35 ENE JAC
50 N GTF 30 NNW HVR 75 ENE HVR 15 NNW 4BQ 25 NNE VTN 15 ESE LBF
40 ENE GLD 45 SW RSL 20 NE FNB 15 NE CID MKE 35 NE MKG 65 N MTC.

...SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AND SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY / OZARKS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WHILE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NWD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ALSO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
/ MS VALLEY...WHILE SRN EXTENT OF TROUGH LAGS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS / SRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS...

MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN / WRN TX
SOUTH OF COLD FRONT.  DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AS 30 TO 35 KT SWLY JET IS INDICATED ALONG THE SE SIDE
OF STRONG VORT MAX AT THE BASE OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.  THE
MAJORITY OF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUGGESTING THE MAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL.  STORMS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET PROVIDES
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SURFACE BOUNDARY.  

...MID MS / OH VALLEY INTO CENTRAL PA / MD / NRN VA...

FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM
ROUGHLY THE OH RIVER NWD TO SRN SHORE OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND ERIE
FOR A PRIMARILY HAIL / DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  GREATEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THUS MOST CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
EXIST AHEAD OF WEAK SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER E
CENTRAL AND NERN IL ATTM.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
NEWD...SUGGESTING THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN IN AND EVENTUALLY INTO NRN OH.  FURTHER EAST ACROSS
WV / PA / NRN VA / MD...STORMS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.  LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING
FOR UVV SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

...THE SOUTHEAST...

STORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND ACROSS THE WRN GA
/ AL / ERN TN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...WITH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
EVENING.  STORMS MAY CONTINUE LOCALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL BEYOND 05/04Z.

..GOSS.. 06/05/02

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Duane Whittingham (N9SSN) - Producer
Tom and Darryl Radio Shows
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