[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/4/2002 2:10:28 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 041905
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
205 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

RUNNING BEHIND DUE TO SERIOUS HYDRO SITUATION AND EARLIER SEVERE...SO
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT. 

AT 18Z SFC LOW SOUTH OF KMLI WITH SECONDARY LOW NEAR KALO. COLD 
FRONT INTO WESTERN ZONES. UPPER WAVE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP GIVE
FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT. MOST OF PCPN THIS EVE
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KCID...WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION IN
SOUTH/EAST ZONES. AS FOR HYDRO...GIVEN WE ARE FIRMLY IN WARNING MODE 
IN THE NORTHERN HALF...WILL TERMINATE WATCH. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
REPEATITIVE CONVECTION...HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXISTS SOUTH/EAST...BUT
ACCORDING TO LATEST FFG THEY CAN TAKE SOME RAIN...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCH SOUTH. ALSO...LOOKS LIKE SQUALL LINE MAY BE DEVELOPING IN 
MO WHICH COULD CUTOFF INFLOW...THEREBY REDUCING AMOUNTS.
GIVEN SATURATED GROUND...FOG POSSIBLE THOUGH WINDS/CLOUDS ENOUGH TO
LIKELY KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FROM DEVELOPING.

ON WED...SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AS 
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 
BULK OF PCPN LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FCST
THOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT STRAY PCPN SNEAKING INTO EXTREME SOUTH 
WED MORNING. 

GET A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAIN LATE WEEK AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 

EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)
MAIN FEATURE WILL BE STRONG CLOSED SYSTEM WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS ON SUN. TIMING OF SYSTEM WILL 
LOOM LARGE ON FORECAST DETAILS WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS/PCPN CHCS.
LEANING TOWARD BLEND OF AVNX/UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THUS WILL BUMP UP
TEMPS A BIT ON MON. PCPN THREAT MAY LINGER INTO TUE...
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND LET LATER MODEL RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.  


.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.