[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/3/2002 2:27:07 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 030722
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
221 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2002

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS A 100KT JET WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AND A SECOND STRONGER 160KT JET WELL OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.
AT 500H...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH A TROF OVER THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IOWA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EXHIBITING COLD AIR DAMMING THRU THE
QUAD CITIES AND SURROUNDING AREAS...AS WINDS COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
MKE IS 47 DEGREES AND MSN 49...AND WINDS ARE OUT OF THE ENE AT 10 TO
20 KTS.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT 500H. AT 700H...THE AVN WAS OFF A BIT ON
TEMPS OVER THE DVN AREA.  AT THE SURFACE...ONLY THE NGM IS PICKING UP ON
THE LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECT. THE NGM IS ALSO HANDLING THE NORTHWEST KANSAS
LOW BEST.  IN QPF FIELDS THE AVN IS BEST...WITH THE ETA POOR...AND THE
NGM VERY POOR.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE THE
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU TODAY NIGHT...GETTING
KICKED EAST ON TUESDAY WITH A PASSING LOW.  THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE IOWA-MISSOURI LINE THRU TONIGHT...DUE
TO LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECTS. ON TUESDAY THE FRONT MAY LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING THRU IN THE
15Z-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH THE AVN BRINGING THE LOW JUST NORTH OF BRL...
THE ETA THRU UIN...AND THE NGM THRU MLI.  THE WARMER SOLUTION WOULD
BRING WARM SECTOR INTO SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
MORNING.

PRECIP CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC LIFT...MAY BUILD SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS 700H
TEMPERATURES COOL...AND COOL AIR POOLING ACROSS AREA DEEPENS...LIFTING
65 TO 70 DEW POINTS SOUTH OF FRONT TO LCL. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTHERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA DIMINISHES BY 18Z...BUT CONTINUES THRU
REMAINDER OF DAY AND NIGHT...DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE.  THERE ARE
A LOT OF MINOR FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...INCLUDING
PVA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH STRONG PVA WEDNESDAY.
VV'S ARE GENERALLY MODERATE TONIGHT...TUESDAY...AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE MODERATE DIVERGENCE AT JET LEVEL...DUE TO RIGHT REAR
QUAD...TONIGHT...TUESDAY...AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT SHIFTS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE 500H TROF MOVES OVER DVN
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY...DEPENDING UPON ON
MODEL.

WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. WILL FOCUS RAIN
CHANCES NORTH TODAY...AND HIT PRETTY HEAVY ON PRECIP TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  MAY INTRODUCE PRECIP NEXT SUNDAY PER NEW FMR/MEX NUMBERS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

REA