[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 6/1/2002 2:50:54 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 010747
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
247 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2002

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS A 115KT JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
A 500H TROF EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO THE APPALACHIANS...
WITH WNW FLOW EXTENDING WEST INTO THE ROCKIES.  A STRONG HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO.  AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
CONVECTION IS PROPAGATING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS
FRONT...ALONG THE 300-700 THICKNESS LINES.

THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT 00Z...WITH THE AVN AND NGM OUT-DOING
THE ETA ON SURFACE INITIALIZATION.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS THE STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL REMAIN
IN THE VICINITY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GETTING KICKED OUT TUESDAY
AS A LOW MOVES THRU THE AREA.  THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
THRU AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH A POSSIBILITY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED
WILL BE ONE CONCERN.  ANOTHER WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN SOME
PERIODS.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SINKING SOUTH TO AT
LEAST THE MISSOURI STATE LINE TONIGHT...OR A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
ACCORDING TO THE ETA AND NGM.  THE LOW-LEVEL JET SETS UP AGAIN OUT
WEST TOWARDS OMA.  WILL HAVE SIMILAR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THIS PAST
NIGHT.  ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT LIFTS A BIT NORTH...BUT STILL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS.  ON SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY
SOUTH...WITH THE NOSE LLJ MOVE BROADLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...
INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  FRONT STILL QUASI-STATIONARY THRU MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...KICKING SYSTEM OUT TO EAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH EUROPEAN AND UK STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  AT 500H...WNW FLOW CONTINUES OVER
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.  ON SUNDAY
NIGHT A RIDGE BUILDS IN AT 500H AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO
WEDNESDAY....WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NEXT 4 DAYS...
WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS PROBABLY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT.

WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST...MAYBE ELIMINATING SEVERE
WORDING IN ONE OR TWO PERIODS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE HIGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH TODAY...BUT NOT NECESSARILY HIGH ENUF TO MENTION SPECIFIC
NUMBERS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

REA