[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/30/02 2:58:12 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 301958
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
258 PM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

MODELS ARE STARTING TO GET A CLUE BUT ARE STILL HAVING PROBLEMS IN
TIMING. NICE WAA ZONE/WARM FRONT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT IN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. THIS MIGHT JUST GRAZE THE FAR NORTH
WITH SOME DECAYING PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS MIGHT
DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND DECAY JUST AS IT GETS INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CWFA. CLEARING OF DEBRIS CLOUDS KEY TO HOW WARM IT GETS ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB TO TODAYS
VALUES OR JUST A LITTLE HIGHER. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET. 12Z MODELS
HAVE SLOWED THURSDAY FRONT CONSIDERABLY (ALA YESTERDAYS UKMET) WITH IT
MOVING THROUGH CWFA DURING MAX HEATING. CONVERGENCE LOOKS GOOD ALONG
FRONT SO TSRA A GOOD BET THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FRONT SHOULD STALL
ALONG I70 CORRIDOR THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

QUICK SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE FRONT MOVES BACK FRIDAY
NIGHT. SITUATION LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT
JUST CATCHING PART OF CWFA. TEMPS WARM UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT
DIFFICULT BUT BASED ON H5 FEATURES...IT SHOULD ALSO ARRIVE DURING MAX
HEATING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA. MONDAY/TUESDAY QUIET WITH
COOLER TEMPS. MEX HAS STARTED TO TREND DOWN ON MAXES MONDAY...SO
CURRENT 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOKS GOOD.

FWC/MAV SIMILAR BUT PREFER HIGHER FWC MAXES THURSDAY SINCE AVN TOO FAST
WITH COLD FRONT.

COORDINATED WITH DSM AND LSE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86