[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/29/02 3:00:14 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 292000
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT MON JUL 29 2002

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT VERY EARLY ON AND THEN
DIVERGE. RIDGE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...DAMP GROUND SHOULD
ALLOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT SHOULD SEE THE 1/2 TO 1 MILE RANGE. NICE DAY
TUESDAY WITH WARM TEMPS. TUESDAY NIGHT STRONG WAA DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS AND MAY JUST BRUSH WESTERN CWFA WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ALLOW THE ENTIRE AREA TO REALLY WARM UP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT THAT MODELS (SAVE AVN) ARE SLOWING DOWN AGAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WARM FRONT TO MOVE BACK NORTH MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA/TSRA IN NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF CWFA IN BETTER WAA ZONE/THETA
E RIDGE.

NEWEST UKMET HAS FRONT ONLY INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH IOWA ON 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS PRIMES AREA FOR FROPA DURING MAX HEATING...SO WILL INCREASE TSRA
CHANCES TO LIKELY CATEGORY. FRIDAY/SATURDAY QUIET BUT MAY AGAIN SEE A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN FAR NORTH/WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AGAIN. SUNDAY A REPEAT OF THURSDAY IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF
FRONT. MONDAY TO BE QUIET.

FWC/MAV SIMILAR THROUGH PERIOD WITH MAV MAXES A TAD COOLER THAN FWC.
PLAN TO GO A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF FRONT.
SIMILAR SCENARIO ON SATURDAY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86