[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/29/02 2:16:39 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 290714
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
214 AM CDT MON JUL 29 2002

06Z PROFILER PLOT PLACES MID LEVEL TROF NEAR THE IA/NE BORDER WITH MSAS
ANALYSIS PLACING SURFACE FRONT FROM SERN MN THROUGH SW IA AND NW MO.
TWO DISTINCT MCS'S EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN MN AND NW MO AND
ERN KS APPEAR TO BE TRYING TO LINK UP. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS
SHRA/TSRA PROPAGATING SW THROUGH CENTRAL IA.   MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING SHOWING SURFACE FRONT MOVING EAST OF CWA JUST
AFTER 12Z WITH H5 TROF CROSSING MS RIVER BY LATE MORNING.  SURFACE
FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH OF CWA ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO REGION TONIGHT.  QUIET WX TO DOMINATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.  MODELS THEN SUGGEST TROF DEVELOPING OVER CENTAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. THIS FRONT
SHOULD BE FOCUS OF SOME LATE NIGHT TSRA ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA. WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVER NRN U.S. THESE STORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF CWA.  NEXT
PCPN CHANCE WILL BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH CWA.  BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING.  LESS FAVORABLE
TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LIMIT PCPN CHANCES.  UKMET/AVN
BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRING SOME PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEATHER TO THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH DEPARTING SHRA/TSRA THIS
MORNING AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD.  850 TEMPS/SURFACE PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST LOW 90S...HOWEVER WITH WET GROUND AND LACK OF
MORNING SUN...WILL KEEP TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER.  MODELS ARE
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 50S/LOW 60 DEW POINTS
ADVECTING IN.  HOWEVER WITH WET GROUND MOST AREAS AND CORN FULLY
MATURE...BELIEVE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER. WILL KEEP LOWS
TONIGHT NEAR WARMER MAV NUMBERS. IF DEWPOINTS STAY UP TONIGHT...THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG AS SURFACE WINDS GO NEARLY CALM
UNDER RIDGE.  NO MENTION OF FOG PLANNED FOR THIS ISSUANCE...BUT DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL. FOR TUESDAY...WILL TREND TOWARD
WARMER FWC NUMBERS WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF PLAINS TROF. REGION STAYS IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE WARM
SIDE. BLEND OF MAV/FWC LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.


.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLF