[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/24/02 2:58:28 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 240758
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
258 AM CDT WED JUL 24 2002

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY RETREATING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 
...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE CWA.  
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE SETTING OFF AREAS OF PRECIP 
ACROSS MN...SD AND MT.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS COVER THE 
CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS TRYING TO HIGHLIGHT 
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN A COMPLEX...UNSETTLED PATTERN.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY STARTING
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE 
IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE AVN AND ETA-NGM REGARDING THE EVOLUTION 
OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY.  THE AVN LOOKS TOO 
INTENSE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW THURSDAY.  THE UPPER 
LEVEL JET SUPPORTS MORE OF AN ETA-NGM SOLUTION.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE 
INTO THE CWA THURSDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION.  ALTHOUGH 
THE GULF IS CUT OFF...THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR 
AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE BASED ON UPSTREAM PRECIPITABLE WATER 
VALUES.

THE FRONT LIES OUT SOUTH OF OR IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA 
FRIDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT 
INTO SATURDAY.  I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL DETAILS OF THE 
SHORTWAVES BEYOND THURSDAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY 
IN THE AREA AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH THE GULF OPENING UP 
WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS...ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRIDAY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

WOLF