[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/23/02 2:36:03 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 230736
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
235 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2002

A BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE LOWER DEW POINT AIR FILTERS INTO THE CWA.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKING IS FIRING
OVER OREGON.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE THE COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOL AIR.  FORECAST TEMPS
WILL APPROACH NEAR RECORD VALUES IN THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT UNDER
VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.  CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL ALSO ALLOW
JULY SUN TO WARM TEMPS NICELY DURING THE DAY.  WILL GO BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS AND NEAR MAV VALUES FOR DAYTIME MAXES.

WEST COAST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THEN DROP INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST MID WEEK BRINGING US THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON
THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL WARM AS THE SURFACE RIDGES SHIFTS EAST...AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN CUTOFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND...
AND WITH ONLY WEAK DYNAMICS...CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.

IN THE EXTENDED...A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION UNDER BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHILE THE GULF OPENS UP.  TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD TO SEASONAL NORMS.  WITH INCREASING GULF
MOISTURE AND A BOUNDARY IN PLACE...WEAK IMPULSES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO POP A FEW STORMS ANYTIME DURING THE PERIOD.
THE CURRENT EXTENDED HANDLES THIS...THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

WOLF