[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/22/02 2:45:43 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 220745
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2002

CURRENT DATA INDICATES MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THINGS WELL. MAJORITY OF
PRECIP IS OCCURRING BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND H85 FRONTS. WHAT IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FROM CONVECTION FURTHER WEST. THIS SHOULD FALL APART
WITHIN A FEW HOURS DUE TO CAPPING INVERSION AND 06Z RUC INDICATES WITH
WITH STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN IOWA BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z. 06Z RUC ALSO HAS FRONTAL MOVEMENT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 00Z
META. THEREFORE WILL PLAY THE PRECIP IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
H85 FRONT WITH PRECIP ENDING WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF H85 FRONT PASSAGE.
THIS WOULD END PRECIP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD...MID
EVENING CENTRAL THIRD...AND AROUND 06Z FOR SOUTHEAST THIRD. AFTER THAT
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION. SMALL MESOSCALE TROFS TO LIKELY HOLD
UP DEW POINTS A LITTLE LONGER THAN MODELS INDICATE BEFORE RIDGE FULLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. QUIET WX THEN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOP
ON TUESDAY.

WILL LET HEAT ADVISORY DIE NATURAL DEATH WITH ZFP ISSUANCE. IF PRECIP
COMPLETELY DIES OFF AND FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY...SOUTHEAST THIRD
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN BUT CI SHIELD SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPS DOWN.

FWC/MAV ARE SOMEWHAT CLOSE BUT SHOW BIG DIFFERENCES AS WELL WITH MAV
BEING COOLER FOR PERIOD 1 BUT THEN EQUAL OR WARMER FOR REMAINING
PERIODS. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPEAR NEEDED.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...ILX...AND STL.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86