[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/17/02 2:53:55 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 171953
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
253 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2002

UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA.  LIFT IN LF QUAD OF
250 MB JET ASSISTING CONVECTION OVER NE MO AND SE IA.  AT THE SURFACE
70+ DEW POINTS NOW INTO THE QUAD CITIES.  THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING
CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST THAN YESTERDAYS ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
NOTE THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF PRECIP OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAYS CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA.  MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON POSITION OF FRONT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
ETA IS A BIT SLOWER.  WILL FAVOR AVN/NGM/UKMET SOLUTION WHICH PUSHES
THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA BY 60 HOURS.

CHANCE TRW THURSDAY STILL IN ORDER WITH FRONT APPROACHING AND
AMPLE MOISTURE...WITH BEST CHANCE NORTH NEARER SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT TO LIKELY AS OMEGA PEAK ALONG
FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE CWFA.

POPS CONTINUE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES VICINITY OF THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY. SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...SO
PRECIP CHANCES LIMITED TO NORTHERN ZONES VICINITY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT.  NEXT FRONT STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS ONLY COOLING A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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