[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/14/02 2:02:54 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 141900
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
200 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2002

LATEST SFC AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATING DVN CWA EXPERIENCING DPTS 4
TO 9 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY/S DRY READINGS. LIGHT FLOW
CIRCULATING AROUND SFC RIDGE CENTER MAY ADVECT EVEN HIGHER DPTS IN
LOW 60S INTO CWA FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. WITH OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AGAIN SETTING UP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...
PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN AREAS WITH THESE HIGHER DPTS. WILL THINK ABOUT
MENTIONING THIS POSSIBILITY IN ZONES. MAY BE EVEN BETTER SHOT AT SOME
FOG MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED SFC DPT RECOVERY. WITH THIS SET UP
TONIGHT RIGHT UNDER RIDGE CENTER...TEMP GUIDANCE AGAIN LOOKS TOO
OPTIMISTIC AND WILL UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLER FWC LOWS. MOST OF CWA
SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE 50S...BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER DPTS WILL PREVENT
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS CHILLY READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

CONTINUED LLVL RIDGE THERMAL MODIFICATION SUGGESTS H85 TEMPS TO WARM
TO +17 TO +18 C BY MONDAY EVENING...AND EVEN WITH LIMITED MIXING TO
810-815 MB LEVEL LIKE WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE LAST FEW DAYS...MID
TO UPPER 80S WILL BE OBTAINABLE. DAY-BY-DAY WARMING/MODIFICATION TO
EXTEND INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH HIGHER SFC DPTS/AMBIENT MOISTURE MAY LIMIT
HIGHS TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90. THIS OVERALL TEMPERATURE SCENARIO
SUPPORTS UNDER-CUTTING THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS AND THE
COOLER FWC LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MODEL POPS
AND PRECIP GRAPHICS DON'T SUPPORT IT...BUT AS LEADING RIBBON OF PVA
FROM NORTHWARD DRIFTING VORT LOBE IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHERN CWA BY
LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WOULD THINK AT LEAST SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION WOULD FIRE ACRS THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
THTA-E ENVIRONMENT. WILL KEEP ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THAT AREA
FOR TUE EVENING. OTHER THAN THAT...WARMER MORE HUMID WEATHER TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK ACRS THE AREA THOUGH MID WEEK.

.LONGER RANGE(WED-SUN)...GENERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK HAS POLAR ENERGY DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN
GRT LKS AND SHUNTING MAIN STORM TRACK BACK ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. THIS PROCESS STILL DRAWS WEAK UPPER LOW BACK
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA...JUST SLOWER NOW
WITH MAIN IMPACT ON THU. MRF QUICKEST WITH UPPER LOW AND BRINGS
SHOWER/STORM THREAT TO CWA BY WED...BUT UKMET AND EURO WOULD SUGGEST
WED NIGHT INTO THU BETTER CHANCE FOR UPPER FEATURE TO ACT ON THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY FOR PRECIP CHANCE. WILL LEAN TOWARD SLOWER SOLUTION.
SOME RIDGE RE-AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SPILLS
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SFC FRONT THROUGH CWA GENERALLY LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...WITH BACKDOOR HIGH AND INHERENT NORTHEAST FLOW-GRT LKS AFFECT
PROVIDING BIT COOLER AND DRIER WX FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ANY SLOW DOWN IN
THIS PROCESS/LIKE LATEST UKMET SHOWING/...COULD LINGER PRECIP INTO
SAT MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO DRY. THUS WILL GO SHOWER/STORM
CHANCE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT....AND STILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE
HIGHS WED AND THU.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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