[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/12/02 2:35:04 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 120734
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
234 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2002

CURRENT DATA COMPARED TO 00Z MODEL DATA INDICATE MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THINGS WELL AT ALL. 03Z RUC IS THE CLOSEST BUT STILL HAS
PROBLEMS. CUTOFF H5 LOW TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO MISSOURI DURING THE
NEXT 2 DAYS TAKING PRECIP THREAT WITH IT. IN VERY SHORT TERM RUC KEEPS
RESPECTABLE OMEGA ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI THAT JUST
CATCHES FAR SOUTHERN CWFA (ALONG WITH LOWERED CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS) THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING BEFORE BEING PUSHED INTO
MISSOURI. BASED ON THIS AND WITH RADAR TRENDS WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIP IN SOUTHERN MOST TIER OF COUNTIES. BEYOND THAT CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH OUT OF CWFA AS RIDGE BUILDS IN. WINDS TO DROP OFF TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. DAMP GROUND MAY ALLOW
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. CAVEAT AGAINST THIS IS THAT DEW
POINTS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL AS WELL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG
OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO DAY SHIFT. SURFACE RIDGE TO
SETTLE ACROSS CWFA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPS TO BE TRICKY BASED ON CLEARING TRENDS TODAY. FWC/MAV ARE CLOSE
WITH MAV JUST A LITTLE COOLER. MINS NEXT FEW NIGHT TO BE TRICKY AS
WELL. DAMP GROUND TO ALLOW COOLING BUT MAY ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPS UP AS
MOISTURE GETS CONTINUOUSLY ADDED TO BOUNDARY LAYER.

COORDINATED WITH DSM AND LSX.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86