[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/11/02 2:32:10 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 111930
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
230 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2002

OVERALL...SMALL...CLOSED UPPER LOW AT 18Z NOW LOCATED WEST OF DSM MOVING
SSE 10-15 MPH.  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WAVE LOCATED NE OF MCI WITH SOME
TSRA/SHRA NOW DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WAVE INTO PARENT SFC
LOW WEST OF OMA.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH NEXT 24-36 HOURS.   SATELLITE SHOW LOTS OF CLOUDS
OVER FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS IN UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT 18Z WITH
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN 50S TO LOWER 60S SW AREAS.  LARGE SFC HIGH NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTH SUPPORTING GRADUAL CLEARING TREND.

STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH CLEARING TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH
ANY LINGERING POPS THIS EVENING FAR SOUTH SECTIONS...

DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...ALL MODELS SUPPORT ANALYSIS TOOLS OF SLOW
CLEARING TONIGHT ALL AREAS EXCEPT ALONG AND SOUTH HIGHWAY 34 AND THEN
MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON FRIDAY EVEN FAR SOUTH.  SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER
AREA NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS...SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AND COOL
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN
LOWS AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY AM.  THIS MAY RESULT IN
LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR DBQ.   HIGHS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MILD AND COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
WILL USE NOWCAST TOOLS FOR FINAL DECISION ON POPS THIS EVENING FAR SOUTH
BUT FOR NOW PLAN FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TIL MIDNIGHT.

.EXTENDED (MON-THU)...ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT BY MID
WEEK ON STRENGTH OF NEXT FRONT AND POSITION SO WILL TAKE BLEND APPROACH
WHICH IS CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR NOW.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS