[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/11/02 2:37:38 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 110737
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
236 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2002

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS MONSTER 500H LOW...BY SUMMER
STANDARDS...SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA.  AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF EXTENDS FROM A 1014MB CENTRAL MISSOURI LOW TO OMA AND FSD.  SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IS CONTINUING TO FORCE PRECIP FROM BRL TO IOWA TO CID AND
NORTHWEST TO NEAR MASON CITY.  NEAR STATIONARY ASPECT OF CONVERGENT
ZONE HAS CREATING A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL WHICH IS
CREATING URBAN/SMALL STREAM PROBLEMS...AND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOOD
OR RIVER FLOOD PROBLEMS.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS IN THE SHORT TERM...IN THE
FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH PRECIP TREND THRU TODAY...AFTER WHICH THE RAIN
MOVES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI.  MODEL QPF HAS BEEN PRETTY POOR...TO SAY THE
LEAST.

THE THE SHORT TERM MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT 00Z...BUT ONLY THE ETA
AND MESO-ETA ARE FOLLOWING PRECIP TREND THRU 06Z WITH ANY DEGREE OF
ACCURACY...AND EVEN THESE ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL.  THE AVN AND NGM
STRUCK OUT IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME WITH CONVERGENT PRECIP ACROSS THE
DVN FORECAST AREA.  AT 500H AND THE SURFACE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 24 CRITICAL HOURS.  THE 500H LOW SINKS SE TO
BETWEEN OTM AND BRL BY 00Z THIS EVENING...TO BETWEEN EOK AND UIN BY 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO STL BY 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.  THE INVERTED TROF
AT THE SURFACE IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.  UVV'S ALSO SINK SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI BY 00Z.  IN THE SHORT TERM...MESO-ETA AND RUC INDICATE THAT
UVV'S AND PVA WILL MAINTAIN OVER CURRENT PRECIP AREA THRU 15Z...THEN
SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIRD OF FORECAST AREA BY 18Z.  MESO-ETA AND
RUC QPF INDICATED THAT PRECIP FOCUS WILL FOLLOW THIS LEAD...TAKING THE
HEAT OFF AREAS WILL CURRENT RAINFALL AND SHIFTING SOUTH.  RAIN WILL
STILL LINGER LONGER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

WILL STAY WITH COOLEST GUIDANCE TEMPS...BUT GO ABOVE CURRENT PACKAGE
PER TRAJECTORIES OUT OF MICHIGAN WHICH INDICATE COOL...BUT NOT
EXCEEDINGLY SO.  WILL RAISE POPS SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE
PRECIP FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTO NEW FMR/MEX NOT REALLY
STRONG ABOUT.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

REA