[LeArc] Weather Watch : 4@ 7/10/02 12:49:40 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


WWUS20 KWNS 101750
SEL4  
SPC WW 101744
ILZ000-MOZ000-102300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 504
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUHTWEST ILLINOIS                           
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI                           

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF JEFFERSON
CITY MISSOURI TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. 
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.


DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SE
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN MO.  THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WHERE THE OUTFLOW INTERSECTS A NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS E/SE MO...WHICH IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF SBCAPE
VALUES OF 3500-4500 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND FORCING ON THE LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SE MO THIS AFTERNOON.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. 
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.  MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 33035.


...THOMPSON

;392,0905 373,0895 363,0915 382,0930;

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