[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/9/02 2:56:30 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 091954
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
254 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2002

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT THE SURFACE FRONT IS HANGING UP
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND HAS DONE SO SINCE EARLY
THIS MORNING.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING THAT AT 12Z THE 850 MB
FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF CWA.  SUSPECT THAT THE LITTLE LINE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NRN IL IS BEING TRIGGERED BY THIS 850
MB FRONT.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS PRECIPITATION TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS.

12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING OF HOW THE CURRENT SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTH...AND IN THE
TRACK OF THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SHORT WAVE.  IN GENERAL...AM LEANING
TOWARDS THE AVN MODEL.

TONIGHT HAS BECOME A SHORT TERM FORECAST TRICK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE TWEAKS.  WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY IS A LITTLE TRICKY RIGHT NOW...AS IT LOOKS AS IF WE
WILL GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE PRECIPITATION CREATED BY THE
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  AM KEEPING POPS
LOW...AND MAINLY LIMITED TO WESTERN HALF OF CWA.

EXTENDED...FRI-TUE
ANOTHER DRY PERIOD WITH THE ONLY SHORT WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS UPPER MID
WEST TO MISS THIS CWA TO THE NORTH.  SHOULD GET RATHER WARM AND
STAGNANT AGAIN...GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE