[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/8/02 2:08:34 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 081906
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
205 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2002

SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND WEST
CENTRAL IOWA...THEN WEST INTO WISCONSIN. PRESSURE FALLS EXISTED EAST
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GREATEST FALLS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST IOWA. SURFACE
MAP AND SATELLITE ALSO SHOW POST FRONTAL CLOUDS...OVERCAST...EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST CANADA. A
H7/H7 TROF/DISTURBANCE WAS EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM DVN SHOWS A CAP AROUND 900 MB.

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT...AND PRECIP CHANCES
ON THURSDAY.

SHORT RANGE...
COLD FRONT TO WORK THROUGH CWA TONIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST MOTION...FRONT
WILL CLEAR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST THEN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
LAST. PRESENTLY THE ONLY ACTIVITY WAS DISSIPATING OVER BUCHANAN
COUNTY...WITH THE NEXT CLOSEST ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HINDERED BY THE CAP IN PLACE.  WILL
STILL CARRY POPS...ALBEIT LOWER THAN THE GOING ZONES HAVE. FRONT THEN
CLEARS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH OF OUR
AREA...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
HIGH THEN RETREATS EASTWARD ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP WEST OF
US.  UPPER AIR LOW THEN NEARS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED...
TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO OUR
AREA ON THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE THEN.  RIDGE BUILDS
BACK INTO OUR AREA AS THE TROF PASSES...BRINGING WARMER WEATHER. GOING
EXTENDED LOOKS GOOD SO I DON/T ANTICIPATE MANY CHANGES.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

JAZ