[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/3/02 12:09:20 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 031603
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1102 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2002

WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPS 
A BIT IN SOME LOCATIONS.  BASIC FORECAST THOUGHT IS STILL ON TRACK.  
CAPES ARE PUSHING 2000 J/KG AND CINS ARE NEARING ZERO.  LACK OF A 
TRIGGER MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS ANY 
TIME SOON.  CONVECTION OVER MN MAY DROP AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH 
WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  
FEATURES ARE EVEN MORE SUBTLE WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH...BUT 
STORMS IN MO YESTERDAY SUGGESTS A THREAT EXISTS FOR THE SOUTH.  

THE WIND SHEAR PROFILE SUPPORTS PULSE TYPE STORMS.  HIGH WBZ WILL 
PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT HAIL.  BLEP INDICATES A 55KT WIND POTENTIAL 
WITH A 90/70 T/TD PARCEL...AND SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ANY OF THESE AT ANY ONE 
LOCATION IS RATHER SMALL.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

WOLF