[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/2/02 1:41:49 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 021840
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
140 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2002

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME WITH MAIN WESTERLIES
TRAVERSING U.S./CANADA BORDER...WITH CONTINUED WARM/HOT CONDITIONS
SOUTH. SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST STATES AND OHIO VALLEY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR PICS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH MO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE AS SHEAR AXIS INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE...WITH PCPN AS FAR NORTH
AS WESTERN MO SOUTH OF I-70. 

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN UNCHANGED...PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH WEEKEND AND 
IMPACT OF CLOUDS/PCPN ON TEMPS. 

NO GLARING PROBLEMS NOTED WITH MODEL INITIALIZATION THAT WILL IMPACT FORECAST.

SQUEEZE PLAY ON...WITH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE FROM SD INTO NORTHERN MN
AND UPPER SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. ETA ODD MODEL OUT DEPICTING FRONTAL
ZONE TO NORTH THROUGH 60 HRS. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN RELATION 
TO ETA BEING FURTHEST NORTH WITH AXIS OF HADLEY CELL H5 RIDGE. GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS TEND TO BELIEVE FURTHER SOUTH POSITIONING OF AVN/NGM/UKMET.
FRONTAL ZONE WILL TEND TO STALL/DRAG ALONG THIS AXIS...THUS PASSING THROUGH
REGION. ALSO...SEEMS OF LATE AVN HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST 
WITH THESE WEAK BOUNDARIES. IN ANY EVENT...MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD THROUGH WED. NOT MUCH FORCING NOTED...AND 
BECAUSE OF THIS MAV/FWC POPS LOOK A LITTLE HIGH. NONETHELESS...WITH MOISTURE
...WEAK CAP AND AFTERNOON HEATING CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLD OR WDLY SCT CONVECTION. 
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MAXES IN M/U 80S MOST LOCALES. 
BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT AND THU...AND 
WILL CONTINUE PCPN CHCS. WILL REMOVE EVENING WORDING WED NIGHT WITH BOUNDARY 
COMING THROUGH LATE...CAN/T RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
UNFORTUNATELY...LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHC OF PCPN ON THE 4TH OF JULY WITH FRONTAL 
ZONE.  

FRI-TUE
NOT MUCH CHANGE AS FORECAST WILL SOUND LIKE BROKEN RECORD FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE...TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME...WITH DAILY CHCS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS...JUST NO WAY AROUND IT. NOT EVERYONE WILL GET WET...BUT THE 
THREAT WILL BE THERE. GREAT LAKES HIGH PROVIDE NICE RELIEF 
TO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...AND IN TURN FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ENERGIZING
BOUNDARY OVER REGION WITH LAKE ENHANCED COOLING...THUS ENHANCING PCPN
CHCS. CONFLUENT FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SAT...SO WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE PCPN
CHCS. THEN...JUST WHEN THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT...NEXT FRONTAL ZONE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST CONTINUING PCPN CHCS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTIVE OF NICE BREAK IN THE HEAT NEXT WEEK.
A VERY NICE REFRESHING DRIER AIRMASS LURKS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND IS POISED TO
SETTLE OVER REGION BY WED. 
 
.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

MCCLURE