[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 12/7/02 3:14:32 AM

[Richard R. Sample]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 070928
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2002

QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS CWA...WITH TEMPS NOT DROPPING VERY 
FAST...ONLY DOWN AROUND 30 IN CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF 
A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS NORTHERN IA.  

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST INCLUDE TEMPS NEXT FEW DAYS.

00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR...AND FOR THE MOST PART HAVE GONE WITH A 
BLEND OF THE MODELS.  TODAY THE TRICKY THING IS HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF 
THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH...IN FULL SUN...AND WITH WEAK WARM OR NEUTRAL 
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.  HAVE DECIDED TO GO JUST ABOVE ETA MET 
GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS...AS THIS WOULD HAVE WORKED WELL FRIDAY IN 
A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SITUATION.  SEE NO REASON WHY LOW LEVELS 
SHOULDN'T GO SUPERADIABATIC DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS.  FAR 
NORTHERN PARTS OF CWA LOOKING AT MUCH COOLER TEMPS...WITH TROUGH 
SITTING RIGHT ON TOP OF THEM...AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE 
AREA.  COLD AIR ADVECTION DELAYED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND AM GOING 
WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS THAN GOING FCST...GENERALLY FAVORING FWC 
TEMPS.  BY SUNDAY THE COLD AIR REALLY GETS IN...AND DIURNAL RANGE 
OUGHT TO BE IN THE DUMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH RIDGE SETTLING IN LATE IN 
THE DAY.  FOR SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SUNDAY...AM TRENDING 
FORECAST TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV TEMPS.   OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO 
DISCUSS...ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR WEAK LITTLE 
SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE MORE THAN CLOUDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...NEW EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING A SYSTEM 
THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE MID WEST ON WEDNESDAY A LITTLE FARTHER 
NORTH...AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF IT WILL BRUSH 
FAR SOUTH.  THURSDAY SYSTEM IS NOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN ON PREVIOUS 
RUNS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME SNOW FOR THIS AREA.  NO CHANGES 
ATTM.

IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE