[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 12/6/02 2:39:17 AM

[Richard R. Sample]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 060853
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
252 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2002

CLEAR SKY OVER CWA THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO THE 
SOUTH.  WEST FLOW CURRENTLY OVER IA BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY TURN 
TOWARDS THE SOUTH...THOUGH WITH NO SIGN ON SLATER PROFILER OF WAA 
KICKING IN JUST YET.  SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA 
AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AREA...WITH SOME GOOD FALLS ACROSS SRN 
CANADA.  

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE IN TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER FOR 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  

00Z MODELS BASICALLY VERY SIMILAR THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...AND HAVE 
GONE GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE ETA AND AVN.  THERE ARE SOME 
ISSUES WITH THE NGM FROM 36 HRS ON OUT...WHEN IT APPEARS TO BE ON 
THE WET SIDE.  

TODAY TEMPS ARE A BIT ON THE TRICKY SIDE...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WAA 
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST...AND FULL 
SUNSHINE.  VERY CHILLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A COLD 
START...BUT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE...A 30 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE SHOULD 
NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A STRETCH.  THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS IN THE NORTH 
TO KEEP OUT THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL WORK OUT 
FORECAST WITHOUT SUCH CLOUDS.  IN LOCAL EXPERIENCE...ETA MET DOES 
RELATIVELY WELL IN THIS KIND OF FLOW...AND WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO 
IT. TONIGHT I HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE AVN MAV AND ETA MET 
GUIDANCE...KEEPING TEMPS UP WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE VICINITY OF THE 
DRY FRONT.  SATURDAY ALSO SHOULD BE WARM...WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH 
IN THE MORNING HOURS.  SATURDAY NIGHT...HAVE ALREADY INDICATED THAT 
NGM KIND OF FISHY...AT THIS TIME RANGE...BUT FEEL THAT IT IS WISE TO 
GO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE AVN MAV TEMPS.   SUNDAY HAVE TONED BACK 
GOING FORECAST TEMPS CLOSER TO AVN MAV TEMPS.  

ONLY POSSIBLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEAR TERM IS 
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX 
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAST 3 MODEL 
RUNS HAS BEEN INDICATED TO BE TOO MOISTURE STARVED TO PRODUCE 
FLURRIES.  JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE RIGHT NOW OVER 
EASTERN MT...SO WILL JUST INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA 
TONIGHT.   ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT 
ON THE AVN...BUT THIS IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN...OR 
THE 00Z ETA OR NGM.  FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE ONGOING PARTLY 
CLOUDY SKY.

IN EXTENDED...DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES...PATTERN CHANGE FOR 
NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...BECOMING MORE ACTIVE FOR HERE...AND 
SHIFTING NORTH.  A SYSTEM LOOPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON 
WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD AFFECT CWA ON THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM 
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR TIMING TRENDS.

IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

LRE