[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 12/4/02 2:15:47 PM

Wed, 04 Dec 2002 14:15:48 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 042029
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
229 PM CST WED DEC 4 2002

MORNING UA DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MODELS TELL THE STORY.
LOW LEVELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY. RADAR TRENDS ACROSS IOWA DURING THE
DAY WERE DIMINISHING...BUT NOW HAVE FLARED UP AGAIN IN THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN CWFA. HOWEVER NO --SN YET. MODELS PUSH SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
LOWERING WITH TIME. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY
AIR...WITH A SMALL LAYER MOISTENING DURING THE NIGHT. IF THERE WAS
A LITTLE FORCING PRESENT -SN MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER FORCING IS
NONEXISTENT SO PRECIP SHOULD BE --SN IF THAT. QUIET CONDITIONS NEXT
TWO DAYS DESPITE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING
IS NIL ALONG WITH MOISTURE.

EXTENDED STARTS INTERESTING WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC PUSH ARRIVING
SATURDAY. WEAK THETA E RIDGE AHEAD OF FRONT AND CAA BEHIND MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME --SN OR --RA. AFTER THAT QUIET
CONDITIONS AS UKMET AND MRF INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM TO BE ACTIVE
WITH PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS TO AFFECT REGION FROM EACH SYSTEM.

IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.