[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 12/3/02 3:13:49 PM

Tue, 03 Dec 2002 15:13:49 -0600

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 032126
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2002

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE OVER MIDWEST WITH A DEEP DRY 
LAYER DOMINATING THE LOW LEVELS.  ALOFT...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH JUST DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO NORTH 
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES 
INTO NEW MEXICO.  

MAIN ISSUES THIS PACKAGE ARE PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS.

CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE 
CWFA...WILL HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT TONIGHT.  WILL FAVOR WARMER MET/MAV 
NUMBERS TONIGHT.  SOUTHERN SYSTEM STAYS SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WHILE 
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS INTO IOWA TOMORROW.  FORECAST 
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LAYER THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME.  WILL 
LOWER POPS FOR TOMORROW NORTH AND KEEP FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.  NEXT 
WAVE DROPS DOWN THURSDAY BUT AGAIN ONLY FLURRIES AS FORCING IS WEAK 
AND SOUNDINGS DRY.  

STRONGER WAVE SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. TIMING 
LOOKS LIKE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WESTERN ZONES INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.  WILL HOLD OFF ON FLURRIES 
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE IF MODELS REMAIN 
CONSISTENT.

TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE LOOK IN ORDER THROUGH THE 
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD 
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH KICKS IN.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

33