[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 12/3/02 3:00:28 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 030911
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2002

NORTHWEST FLOW STILL INTACT FROM NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. STRONG SFC HIGH STRADDLING THE NRN MN BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING.  NE LOW LEVEL FETCH OF LM HAS ADVECTED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
OVER NRN HALF OF CWA AS FAR WEST AS A LINE FROM KMXO TO JUST EAST OF
KIOW. OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA CLOUDS SO FAR WERE CONFINED TO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. KDVN 88D LOOP SHOWS AREA OF WEAK RETURNS OVER NERN
THIRD OF CWA.  SURFACE REPORTS INDICATING JUST SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY.

MODEL INITIALIZATION MONDAY EVENING LOOKED REASONABLE WITH SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA/GFS ON THE STRENGTH OF S/W TROF
OVER SASKATCHEWAN.  GFS LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SYSTEM AT H5
WHILE ETA HAS CAPTURED THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR AT H850 BETTER
THAN THE GFS. MODELS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH MID WEEK AND WILL GO
WITH A BLEND OF ETA/GFS.  HOWEVER...PREFER THE ETA IN THE SHORT TERM
SINCE ITS BETTER RESOLUTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS DOING A REASONABLE
JOB ON THE LAKE MOISTURE.

LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING.  CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND THIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS 925MB FLOW VEERS TO A MORE SERLY DIRECTION.
BY THE TIME THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LIFT N...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD E FROM THE PLAINS AHEAD OF S/W DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
ANITICIPATE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH FLURRIES LIMITED TO THE
MORNING HOURS.  EASTERLY SFC FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMP
RECOVERY...SO WILL GO NEAR THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS. CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL USE A MAV/ETA BLEND...
WHICH ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.  WEDNESDAY...
QUESTION WILL BE THE EXTENT AND LOCATION OF -SN AHEAD CANADIAN S/W
TROF. CURRENT FCST LIMITS LOW CHANCE POPS TO NRN HALF OF CWA...WITH
FLURRIES SOUTH. ETA/GFS SUFFEST BEST UVV'S WILL BE SOUTH...BUT BASED
ON ETA FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER SOUTHERN HALF
OF CWA WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP CHC POPS LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND
FLURRIES SOUTH. COOLER MAV NUMBERS LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS MOST OF DAY. ANOTHER S/W ROTATES
THROUH REGION THURSDAY.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTH WITH
LACK OF MOISTURE KEEPING LIGHT PCPN CLOSE TO BEST FORCING.


NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.  GFS IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER THAN THE UKMET.  SINCE THE UKMET IS STILL SUGGESTING LATE
DAY FROPA...WILL LEAVE CURRENT FCST OF R/S MIX AS IS.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLF