[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/25/02 1:39:02 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 250643
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
140 AM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

.OVERVIEW...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NEBRASKA DIVING SOUTHEAST WITH
LOTS OF JET CIRRUS SPILLING INTO IOWA.   THIS CIRRUS IS JUST ENOUGH TO
LIMIT DENSE FOG FORMATION ACROSS MOST OF AREA.  DISTANCE/TIME TOOL
SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND AT LEAST INTO MID MORNING HOURS
WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG OVER WIDESPREAD AREAS.  REX BLOCK PATTERN
EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL US WITH LITTLE CHANGE ONCE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS
CLOSED LOW IN SE US BY MONDAY PM PER LACK OF UPSTREAM HEIGHT CHANGES AND
JET ENERGY.

...POPCORN POPS TODAY...THEN TEMPS AND FOG CHANCES FORECAST ISSUE...

.DIAGNOSIS AND DAYS 1-3...UPPER VORT MAX SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF AREA BY
LATE PM TODAY.  ALL MODELS SUPPORT SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONFLUENT
SFC CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 AND WITH UPPER VORT MAX
NEARBY AND MODEL SUGGESTION OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED WILL
PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH 2/3 AREA.  TEMPS TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
MODEL BLEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE NOTED SO PERSISTENCE THE KEY.  BETTER
CHANCE OF DENSE FOG SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.EXTENDED (WED-SAT)...PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...SEE
NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL WITH SOME WARMUP BY WEEKEND AS TROUGH DEVELOPS ON WEST COAST.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

NICHOLS