[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/23/02 2:50:07 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 231948
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
248 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2002

HEAVY RAIN MCS NOW WELL REMOVED FROM CWFA WITH MODELS PROGGING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS ARE GOOD
PROS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. CONS ARE BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING OUT
AND HOW SOON CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMING MORE CELLULAR WITH TIME WHICH
INDICATES A GOOD CHUNK OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
THEREFORE WILL GO INITIALLY WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND REPEAT
THIS THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS AS FLOW REGIME NOT GOING ANYWHERE FAST.
HEADLINES FOR FOG MIGHT BE NEEDED BUT UNCERTAINTY PREVENTS FROM DOING
SO ATTM. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO OVERNIGHT SHIFT.

DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ON SUNDAY...
WEAK TROF PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS RECOVERING
SOMEWHAT. THIS SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FWC/MAV NUMBERS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH MAV BEING A LITTLE COOLER FOR
PERIOD 4. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

EXTENDED STARTS OUT DRY BUT THEN GETS A LITTLE INTERESTING AROUND MID
WEEK. AVN HAS JUMPED AROUND TO ECMWF IN BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT IT NOW WARRANTS
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. DRY ON FRIDAY.

COORDINATED WITH DSM..LSE...ILX...AND STL.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

86