[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/22/02 2:36:18 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 221939
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
239 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2002

MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON THEIR SOLUTIONS BUT CLOSER EXAMINATION
INDICATES THAT ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DYNAMICS NOT AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT BUT GOOD ENOUGH. THETA E RIDGE IN
PLACE...COMBINED WITH THE FRONT...AND HIGH PWS TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO
FIRE WITH BACK BUILDING OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON TRENDS FROM
CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE RUC...THE AVN/NGM SOLUTION OF BEING FURTHER
NORTH LOOKS BETTER THAN THE ETA SOLUTION. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING
OFF DURING THE MORNING WITH MOST OF THE EVENT OVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BASED ON THIS WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL
INCLUDE ENTIRE CWFA AS STILL GETTING REPORTS OF FLOODING UP NORTH WITH
ROADS CLOSED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TO BE QUIET. AVN DOES DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP IN SOME FORCING ON SATURDAY IN THE NORTH THIRD BUT THIS LOOKS
SUSPECT AND WILL LEAVE ALL OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT DRY.

GUIDANCE QUITE SIMILAR WITH TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD 5...WITH DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP IN POPS. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

EXTENDED WISE...AVN DEVELOPS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IN AN AREA OF
FORCING ACROSS IOWA SUNDAY WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. LOOKS LIKE ABOUT
SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWFA TO BE AFFECTED. AFTER THAT QUIET WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...ILX...AND STL.

.DVN...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
IA...IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...MOZ009-010.

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