[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/17/02 2:55:14 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 170758
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
258 AM CDT SAT AUG 17 2002

AS THOUGHT SQUALL LINE HAS LIT UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE CWFA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THE FRONT ARE IMPRESSIVE BUT STILL LIKE THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NGM/AVN
FOR FRONTAL TIMING. BASED ON THIS THINKING FRONT SHOULD ENTER FAR
NORTHWEST CWFA 14-16Z TIME PERIOD...AN KOTM TO KDBQ LINE 16-18Z...
MISSISSIPPI RIVER 19-21Z...AND KUIN TO KDKB 21-23Z TIME PERIOD.
LINGERING PRECIP STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR EAST/SOUTH PARTS OF CWFA AROUND
00Z BUT SHOULD BE OVER BY 02Z (OR EARLIER). MODELS DO SHOW FORCING
WEAKENING IN THE 09-12Z TIME PERIOD WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE CLIMO WISE
FOR FRONTS WEAKENING AND WITH ENERGY SUGGESTING A SPLIT TO NORTH AND
SOUTH OF CWFA. FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
CWFA...AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE (IF IT OCCURS IN THE CWFA).
STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND FRONT TO ALLOW BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY QUIET CONDITIONS AS HIGH MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH
AREA. LLJ REDEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD WARM FRONT SOUTH OF
CWFA. IF MODELS CORRECT...THIS WOULD ENTER SOUTHERN CWFA PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA IN SOUTH THIRD OR SO...AND CWA WIDE ON MONDAY.
POTENTIAL THERE FOR HEAVY RAIN BUT THIS SHOULD BE JUST OUTSIDE CWFA.

TEMPS TO BE TRICKY BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT. ONCE FROPA OCCURS TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEARLY STEADY BASED ON STRONG CAA. POTENTIAL TO GET NICE AND
WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS...
WARMER FWC IS PREFERRED FOR MAXES TODAY. WITH GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW
GUIDANCE MIGHT BE A LITTLE LOW. WINDS AND SOMEWHAT MOIST GROUND SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM CRASHING TOO MUCH TONIGHT...BUT 50S CWFA WIDE
EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN CWFA TONIGHT.

COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...ILX...AND STL.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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