[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/16/02 7:56:22 PM

Fri, 16 Aug 2002 19:56:22 -0500

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 170058
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
758 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

SURFACE WARM FRONT STILL TO OUR SW...FROM S CENTRAL SD THROUGH SW IA 
TO W CENTRAL IL AT 00Z. AREA 88DS SHOW STRONG CONVECTION ALONG N 
CENTRAL IA/MN BORDER ALONG EDGE OF H85 MOISTURE RIDGE AXIS WEAKER 
CONVECTION RAPIDLY DISSIPATING IN NE IA. MOST ACTIVITY NOW ALONG 
BEST H85 WARM ADVECTION IN SOUTHERN MN AS ADVERTISED BY 18Z ETA. 00Z 
KDVN SOUNDING SHOWS DRYING HAD OCCURRED AT MID LEVELS AND 
SIGNIFICANT CAP REMAINED IN PLACE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER 
MOST OF CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG H85 
WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH FROM SW. QUICK ANALYSIS AND 
CURRENT TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT SEVERE WORDING FOR TONIGHT REMOVED 
FROM ZONES AND HAVE ALSO TRIMMED BACK CONVECTION FOR MAINLY 
OVERNIGHT. 

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLS