[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/16/02 2:50:25 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 160753
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
252 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

FORECAST TO BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TODAY. AVN SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
CURRENT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWFA THE BEST WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE
RUC POINTING TOWARD THE AVN. FOLLOWING THIS...CONVECTION ALONG FRONT
SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNRISE AS BETTER FORCING MOVES ENE.
HOWEVER STILL LIKELY THAT SOME POPS WILL BE NEEDED DOWN SOUTH THROUGH
MID MORNING OR SO. AFTER THAT QUIET BUT WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING AS WARM FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH THROUGH
CWFA WITH IT AROUND I80 AT 00Z. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONT TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH AVN BEING A LITTLE SLOWER. TREND SO FAR THIS
SUMMER IS THAT MOVEMENT OF FRONT IS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE.

PRECIP LIKELY TO BE IN THE AREA BETWEEN SFC AND H85 FRONTS TONIGHT
WHICH WOULD PLACE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT
WORDING OF CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE. LIKELY TO SEE SOME PRECIP INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF CWFA BEFORE ENDING. AFTER THAT QUIET CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. AVN DOING A BIG CHANGE FROM EARLIER
RUNS OF DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL MCS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN
SUCH A BIG CHANGE WILL NOT CHANGE THIS PART OF FORECAST AND PASS ON
CONCERNS TO DAY SHIFT.

TEMPS TODAY TRICKY BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION AND AMOUNT OF CLOUDS.
TRAJECTORY METHOD SUGGESTS LOWER 90S SOUTH THIRD WITH MID/UPPER 80S
NORTHERN PARTS. MINS TONIGHT LIKELY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THAT IN MIND...TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
WARMER FWC. THIS DEPENDENT ON WHEN PRECIP STOPS.

COORDINATED WITH DSM AND CHI.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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