[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/14/02 2:48:39 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 140752
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
230 AM CDT WED AUG 14 2002

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS STRONG 500H TROF EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY LOW THRU MN...WESTERN IA...INTO OK. THIS TROF DOMINATES
THE MID PORTION OF THE CONTINENT...WITH HIGHS ON BOTH COASTS. A 100-
120KT JET IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ND.  AT THE SURFACE...THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THRU OUR AREA EXTENDED FROM A 1006MB LOW IN THE
EASTERN UP OF MICHIGAN THRU EASTERN IL INTO AR.  A DEEPER 995MB LOW
WAS IN CENTRAL MANITOBA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS TWO-FOLD. FIRST IS POSSIBLE
PRECIP IN THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AND DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA.  SECOND IS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT IN THE SATURDAY EVENING
TIME FRAME.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON BRIEF RIDGING TODAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO MT WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN COMING TO A SCREECHING HALT AS IT HITS THE LARGE HIGH
DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST U.S...AND WEAKENING OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
WITH ITS REMNANTS LIFTING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THE NGM
PRODUCES .20 QPF THURSDAY WITH THE AVN AND THE ETA NONE...THE ETA .05
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE AVN NONE...AND THE AVN .25 ON FRIDAY.  SO NOT
MUCH AGREEMENT.  A SHORT-WAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY KEEP PRECIP NORTH...ALTHO PRECIP NOT OUT OF
QUESTION DUE TO VV'S AND SURFACE DEW POINTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE NEXT FEATURE IS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. YESTERDAY'S MRF WAS
OUT IN LEFT FIELD ON THIS...BUT TODAY'S FALLS IN LINE WITH THE
AVN/EUROPEAN/UK...WITH COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING OR NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THRU TUESDAY.

WILL STAY QUITE CLOSE TO ONGOING FORECAST...WHICH HAS GOOD HANDLE ON
TEMPS AND PRECIP.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

REA