[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/8/02 2:42:33 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 080745
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2002

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MIDWEST LEAVING US IN COOL 
AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE 
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH IS OUR POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR 
SATURDAY.  UNTIL THEN...THE MAIN (ONLY) CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES.

MODELS AGREE IN HOLDING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
THEN SLOWLY STARTING TO SLIDE IT EAST.  UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... 
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD MODERATE A FEW DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY'S 
MAXS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY.

THE ETA AND AVN ARE STRONGER THAN THE NGM WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE 
MODELS SPIN UP QUITE A VORT MAX WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE DYNAMIC 
FORCING REMAINS GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH.  THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR STORMS 
WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE 
CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DIURNAL HEATING... 
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS FEATURE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE.  
THUS LOW POPS STILL LOOK GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK STILL 
LOOKS ON TRACK.  THE LATEST AVN-EXT SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE CWA HAS A 
PRECIP THREAT MONDAY...THUS ADDED POPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES.  
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES HERE.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

WOLF