[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/7/02 2:42:46 AM

Wed, 07 Aug 2002 02:42:46 -0500

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.

FXUS63 KDVN 070745
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2002

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ASSOCIATED COOL 
DRY EASTERLY FLOW ARE THE MAIN FEATURES ON THE WEATHER MAP THIS 
MORNING.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE 
CENTRAL U.S. WHILE A POTENT TROUGH IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS FEATURE PRESENTS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.  
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE HOW COOL 
TEMPERATURES WILL GET.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDING BASIC 
FEATURES.  COOL DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 
ONLY OCCASIONAL WISPS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT TODAY BY 
CONTINUED 850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION.  GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING 
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S IN ALL THE SOUTHERN 
ZONES.  THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD 
WARM A FEW DEGREES AS CAA DECREASES AND THE AUGUST SUN STARTS TO 
MODIFY THE AIR MASS.

FLOW ON FRIDAY BECOMES SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE AVN DEVELOPS A RATHER INTENSE CLOSED LOW 
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO BE TOO STRONG.  
HOWEVER...BOTH THE ETA AND AVN INDICATE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING 
REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING THE COLD FRONT AS THE ONLY 
SUPPORT FOR TRIGGERING STORMS ON SATURDAY.  THUS CHANCE POPS ON 
SATURDAY STILL LOOK GOOD.

ON SUNDAY THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  LOW-LEVEL 
WARM ADVECTION IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY 
TREND.  YESTERDAY'S MRF AND TONIGHTS AVN-EXTENDED BRING ANOTHER 
SYSTEM INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THUS WILL 
ADD A CHANCE OF STORMS THAT DAY.  OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES 
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.