[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 8/6/02 2:43:28 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 060745
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2002

RISING HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AT 00Z ANALYSIS INDICATED H5 
HIGH OVER MO AND RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA CONTINUED 
TO AMPLIFY. THIS...ALONG WITH HELP FROM UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW 
ENGLAND PUSHING 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD 
INTO GREAT LAKES. RESULTING LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW OFF GREAT LAKES 
USHERING IN MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. MAIN 
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DEGREE OF COOLING WITH MAX AND MIN 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH DECENDS INTO LOWER MI.

AT 06Z...MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN 
IL THROUGH NORTHERN MO...CURVING NW INTO NEB PANHANDLE. ALONG AND 
NORTH OF BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS CONTINUED TO POOL IN LOWER 70S 
EXTENDING INTO FAR SOUTH DVN FORECAST AREA ZONES. BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 
H85 EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN IL INTO NEB PANHANDLE AT 00Z. PSUEDO COOL 
FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF GREAT LAKES AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN 50S 
CONTINUED TO PUSH SLOWLY WEST-SW AND REACHED FROM ABOUT KMUT TO KCID 
AT 07Z. WEAK SHOWERS ON 88D FROM ABOUT KFSW TO KPIA LIKELY MARKING 
CURRENT EDGE OF H85 FRONT. IMEDIATE CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR EARLY 
MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE 
IN FAR SOUTH.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH MAIN FEATURES TO IMPACT FORECAST AREA AND WENT 
MAINLY WITH BLEND. SOME CONCERN ABOUT HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM 
SD MCS ROTATING INTO IA ZONES BY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY 
CLEAR SKIES ONCE SUN BURNS OFF CURRENT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS. GUIDANCE 
HIGHS IN MID 70S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 80S IN FAR SOUTH REASONABLE 
LOOKING AT MONDAY HIGHS IN SOURCE AIRMASS AND ACCOUNTING FOR CLOUD 
TRENDS. TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 
SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES OVER FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE 
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY ETA...LOOK TOO LOW GIVEN WET GROUND 
CONDITIONS AND MATURE CROPS. THUS MOS MET AND 2M META LOWS TOO COOL 
AND HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO FWC WITH MID TO UPPER 50S. WEDNESDAY 
LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND PLEASANT WITH TEMPS RECOVERING CLOSEST TO FWC 
VALUES IN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. 

RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE 
MOVES ON SHORE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH 
TIMING OF FEATURE...BUT MRF MUCH DEEPER THAN UK OR CANADIAN AS WAVE 
PASSES TO NORTH. WILL KEEP CURRENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY 
BUT REMOVE MENTION FOR SUNDAY AS WAVE DEPICTED A BIT FASTER. NEXT 
SHORTWAVE MAY IMPACT LATE MONDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE ON-GOING DRY GRID 
FOR NOW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED TEMPERATURES...WITH 
HIGHS MODERATING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FRIDAY THROUGH 
MONDAY...BUT NOT AS HOT AS OF LATE AND TRENDED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE GUIDANCE.   

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

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